Cao Jianhai

Cao Jianhai

Cao Jianhai, born on December 28, 1967 in Yongnian County, Hebei Province, is a doctor of economics. He is now the director of the investment and Market Research Office of the Institute of industrial economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, deputy director of the academic committee of the international investment research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and professor of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of social sciences.

In December 2010, he and Lang Xianping, Dai Xu, Yu Jianrong, Guo Yiping, Shi Hanbing, etc. were elected as one of the "top nine Internet figures in China" by 300000 netizens. The vast majority of netizens recognized the selection of "nine big men of the moment" and recognized that the nine big men of the moment were close to the standard of "public intellectuals".

Character experience

In 1986, 1991 and 1998, he graduated from the Department of business management of Hebei University of Finance and Economics (now Hebei University of economics and trade), the Department of investment economics of Renmin University of China and the Department of industrial economics of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, with bachelor's degree, master's degree and doctor's degree respectively,

From 1998 to 2000, he did postdoctoral research in the Institute of resource science, Beijing Normal University, and his research direction was the efficient use of urban land in China. From 1986 to 1988 and 1991 to 1995, he taught in Hebei University of Finance and economics. In August 2000, he entered the Institute of industrial economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and took his current position.

Research direction

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Research direction

For industrial investment and market, business administration and land economy, there are many researches on automobile industry, civil aviation industry and real estate industry. Since 2000, he has presided over 10 major projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Soft Science Foundation of China and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, published more than 100 papers in academic journals such as the Chinese economy, economic management, Chinese Social Sciences, economic research, management world, China's industrial economy, finance and trade economy, and authored over competition theory and China's urban economy Research on efficient land use, China's industrial prospect report (chief editor), China's market prospect report (chief editor), China's urban management research: Taking Hangzhou as an example (deputy chief editor), China's Yangtze River Delta manufacturing development report (deputy chief editor), international industrial transfer and China's becoming a world factory (deputy chief editor), etc.

People selection

One of the top nine Internet figures in China

In December 2010, after more than 300000 netizens spontaneously voted, Cao Jianhai was publicly recommended as one of the "top nine Internet figures in China" (2010 top nine Internet figures in China) juxtaposed with Lang Xianping, Yu Jianrong, Dai Xu, Zhang Hongliang, Guo Yiping, sun Xiliang and others. They are called "the true representatives of the public opinion at the bottom of China", "the outstanding descendants of the Chinese nation in the 21st century" and "the most conscientious literati in China".

In December 2011, an article on "saying public knowledge, discussing public knowledge, who is public knowledge" by Tengxun news channel triggered a big discussion on the Internet, and tens of millions of netizens participated in it. The vast majority of netizens think that in recent years, the selection of public knowledge is excessive, and public knowledge has almost become a derogatory term. However, the vast majority of netizens recognized that the "nine big men of the moment" and the nine big men of the moment, including Cao Jianhai, were close to the standard of "public intellectuals".

Anecdotes of characters

Property market

summary

A variety of facts show that the real estate market since March 2009 has repeated the rising trend of 2007. Due to the rare reappearance of history, speculators are more crazy, and the hot momentum of the real estate market is surpassing that of 2007. So, will history repeat itself?

In order to control the pace, the Chinese government is bound to implement the "slow brake" policy. Large scale credit, especially illegal credit, will be greatly restricted, and the rise of the asset market will be controlled.

On the other hand, if the central government believes that the economic growth has not achieved the expected goal and further relaxes the monetary policy on the basis of the upper limit set in early 2009, the rise of house prices this year will be difficult to curb, and house prices will turn downward from March to April 2010.

At present, China's real estate market has entered a period of sharp rise again. Statistics show that nearly 50 of the properties on sale in Beijing in June are currently at their highest prices in history. Most of the properties rose by more than 20% from the first quarter of 2009 to June. At the same time, the land market is heating up rapidly, and the market is facing fierce competition. Developers are desperately trying to get a better bubble than they did in 2007.

Easy credit leads to soaring house prices

Of all the rescue policies, credit policy is undoubtedly the most important. The policies of this rescue include tax policy and credit policy, as well as the public policies implemented by local governments, such as "refund of individual income tax on house purchase" and "housing into households". However, it is the credit policy that really promotes the short-term recovery of the property market.

Since the beginning of this year, new credit has risen rapidly. From January to may, new credit has reached 5.83 trillion yuan. It is estimated that new loans in the first half of this year may exceed 6.5 trillion yuan. All kinds of signs show that the evidence of large-scale flow of funds to the real estate market is very obvious, not only for real estate developers to attract more consumers through bluff sales, but also for a large number of industrial and commercial capital and credit funds to enter the real estate industry through high interest loans and other means. More importantly, the policies of the central bank and the CBRC to encourage the expansion of consumer credit, such as Fundamentally solve the problem of the whole real estate industry capital chain.

Under the loose monetary policy environment, in order to achieve the goal of expanding domestic demand and "ensuring growth", the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the "guiding opinions of the people's Bank of China on Further Strengthening the adjustment of credit structure and promoting the steady and rapid development of national economy" on March 18, 2009, proposing to encourage the development of consumer credit and make the consumer credit market bigger and better The field. We will focus on promoting credit consumption in industries closely related to people's livelihood, such as automobiles, housing, home appliances, education and tourism. We should support the establishment of consumer finance companies in qualified local pilot projects, implement the real estate credit policy, and support the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. We will actively support low rent housing, affordable housing and other affordable housing projects that meet the loan conditions. We will support real estate enterprises with good credit conditions to issue corporate bonds and carry out real estate investment trust fund pilot projects, and broaden financing channels for real estate enterprises. Increase credit support for self occupied and improved housing consumption, and encourage ordinary commodity housing consumption.

According to the data recently released by the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank, the personal housing loans of Chinese funded banks in Shanghai increased by 7.87 billion yuan in May, reaching the highest monthly increment in the past four years, an increase of 660 million yuan over the same period of last year and an increase of 4.48 billion yuan over the previous month. Among them, new housing loans increased by 4.57 billion yuan, and second-hand housing loans increased by 3.3 billion yuan. According to the information released by many cities, housing loans have become the pillar business of many commercial banks along with the substantial increase of housing loans month by month since March.

Such a policy naturally greatly boosted investors' confidence in the real estate industry. Since April of this year, real estate stocks and bank stocks have been interacting in turn, and real estate stocks have become the "leading figures" of the current stock market. From the "fake mortgage" in the period of credit crunch, to the wave of fake sales data and home withdrawals in the period of xiaoyangchun, and then to the large number of speculators entering in May and June, the real estate market has finally realized the long-awaited "reversal" trend of the central and local governments, and is on the rising track again. However, under the background of excessive housing supply, limited income growth and long-term bearish economy, the rising trend of real estate prices is doomed to be unsustainable, and there will be a sharp drop after the sharp rise, which is not subject to anyone's will.

Can house purchase keep value

At the same time of large-scale credit supply, a large number of funds have entered the stock market and the real estate market, which is seriously short of funds, driving the rapid rise of asset market prices. According to the statistics of CICC, as of June 25 this year, the dynamic P / E ratios of Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai composite index were 26.2 times and 21.1 times respectively, ranking the top in the world; while the housing market rose again in the case of inadequate price adjustment, which basically blocked the channel for ordinary consumers to buy houses and expand consumption, and quickly became a paradise for speculators. From the above analysis, we can basically judge that due to the separation from the real economy and the real payment level of households, China's stock market and housing market will turn down after the limited period of speculation, and a large amount of funds may rush into the speculation of means of production and means of consumption, which will drive the price of physical products soaring and lead to hyperinflation. Inflation is bound to hit the domestic real economy which is in the recession cycle, and it is also bound to force the economy into a long-term stagflation or even financial crisis and economic crisis. This is an inevitable law that does not depend on human will.

So, under the strong inflation expectation, is real estate the first choice for financial investment and risk aversion? I don't think so! The reason is that the current housing prices in large and medium-sized cities are nearly 10 times higher than the real cost, and overdraft the future rising space, so the investment in housing has no value. In terms of money supply growth, the M2 of China's broad money supply is expected to be 55.2 trillion yuan in 2009, which is about 2.5 times of the m222.1 trillion yuan in 2003. At present, the price of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities is about 3-5 times of the level in 2003. Even if the total supply of housing remains unchanged for six years, the rising rate of house prices has far exceeded the growth rate of money supply, and has lost the room for rising; from the per capita housing area, the per capita housing area in China's cities and towns is 23.7 square meters in 2003, and will exceed 30 square meters in 2009, which is in the fast-growing cities

Chinese PinYin : Cao Jian Hai