China's growth targets bring 'unexpected surprises'

According to a report from Washington on January 17th by Reuters, Pierre Olivier Courancha, Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that China has informed the IMF of a 5% economic growth for 2024. He said that compared to the 4.8% growth rate predicted by the International Monetary Fund, this is a "surprise beyond expectations"

Quresha said that the International Monetary Fund has slightly raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, reflecting that fiscal measures have to some extent promoted growth momentum. But Quresha emphasized that the world's second-largest economy still needs to strengthen the role of domestic demand in driving economic growth. This is the message that the organization has been conveying for a long time

He stated at a video press conference on the 17th that the Chinese economy needs to shift towards a more domestically driven growth engine. He said, 'This is a very large economy, and it is difficult to rely solely on other parts of the world to promote domestic growth.' He added that China has taken a series of measures to develop in this direction

On January 18th, the Russian newspaper Businessman reported that data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed that the country's economy grew by 5% in 2024. This goal was once seen as a difficult task to achieve, but in the fourth quarter of 2024, the economic growth rate significantly increased, and the expansion of industrial production and exports partially offset the adverse effects of domestic demand troubles and the sluggish real estate market

The World Bank recently predicted that the growth rate of the Chinese economy in 2025 would be 4.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from before; The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast to 4.6%

The British newspaper The Times and the US World News Network analyzed the reasons for China's goal of achieving a 5% economic growth by 2024

On January 17th, The Times website reported that in 2024, Chinese authorities took several rounds of economic stimulus measures to offset the impact of factors such as the sluggish real estate market on the economy. The key interest rate has been lowered, measures to support the stock market have been implemented, and local debt conversion plans have been formulated. Recently, relevant departments have also expanded the trade in program, allowing consumers to exchange old products for subsidies for purchasing new products

The report also stated that at the end of 2024, officials announced that China would implement a "moderately loose" monetary policy, which is seen as the first such adjustment in many years. Previously, monetary policy was generally described as' prudent '

On January 17th, World News reported that driven by multiple rounds of stimulus measures and strong exports, China's GDP will grow by 5% year-on-year in 2024, achieving the official target of "around 5%"

According to Reuters analysis, with the launch of multiple rounds of policy stimulus measures, the Chinese economy rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2024, enabling it to basically achieve its previously set growth targets

Economist Hu Weijun from Macquarie Group pointed out that China's policy changes since September 2024 have highlighted its determination to defend its growth targets

Xing Zhaopeng, senior strategist at ANZ Bank, stated that driven by a low base and policy stimulus, GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 grew by 5.4% year-on-year, which exceeded market expectations

Economist He Weizhen from Dahua Bank in Singapore believes that one of the main driving factors is the industrial sector in December 2024, partly due to early production and exports before Trump returns to the White House

Rong Jing, Chief China Economist at BNP Paribas, stated that the biggest highlight of the economy in 2024 is exports, which are strong, especially when price factors are excluded

Wu Zhuoyin, a senior economist at the French Foreign Trade Bank, believes that if we want to achieve growth of over 4.5% by 2025, more policy support from relevant departments is needed